01/09/09, 01:07:21 UTC

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Full steam ahead for global tourism in latest UNWTO figures

bi-me.com

The new UNWTO World Tourism Barometer provisional data on international tourist arrivals, just published, gives an upbeat insight into global tourism performance for the first eight months of 2007.

And it points to a continuation of the sustained growth rate experienced over the past years.

From January to August 2007, destinations worldwide received an estimated 610 million international tourist arrivals, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year.

The Northern Hemisphere high season months of July and August were “remarkably strong” said UNWTO (World Tourism Organization), especially given the fact that capacity was already tight in this period.

For the first time ever, both July and August topped over 100 million arrivals each, a rise of over 5% in both months.

The full year forecasts now suggest that this trend is likely to continue through the remainder of 2007, with year-end growth estimated at 5.7%. This suggests that 2007 will close with over 880 million arrivals and might even approach 900 million, the UNWTO said. For 2008, only a very slight softening is expected, with growth of around 5%, therefore sustaining an above-average growth rate.

With an estimated increase in the range of 5% to 6%, 2007 is set to be the fourth year of tourism growth above the world's long-term average of 4.1% a year.

Growth has been very much driven by emerging destinations in Asia and the Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, while the more mature regions of Europe and the Americas are showing a more moderate pace, though still well above their respective long-term averages. Both Europe and the Americas are expected to be up by 4% on the 2006 travel volumes, with this growth at one percentage point lower this year. Asia Pacific is expected to end this year 10% up and similarly the Middle East will post high growth of 7%, despite what UNWTO calls "continued turbulence" in the region.

Developing economies and new destinations

One of the main contributors to 2007’s continued strength in international tourism has been the strong global economy, with world GDP in 2007 heading for a 5.2% increase, the fourth year in a row with GDP
growth at around 5%. The impact of the recent turbulence in financial markets is not reflected in tourism performance, UNWTO noted.

“The actual growth trend in international tourism is supported by the spurt in economic growth of the recent years, worldwide, but in particular in the world’s emerging market and developing countries. Economic growth has reached a historic record in this group of countries, both in terms of the level of growth achieved and the length of time this has been sustained.”

In its latest World Economic Outlook the International Monetary Fund broadly maintained its previous positive tone, UNWTO noted, projecting economic growth to continue next year at only a slightly lower pace.

The fact that 2007 is the fourth year of healthy growth worldwide confirms that tourists have generally been undeterred by external threats, whether related to terrorist activities, health and security scares, increased taxation of air transport and tourism, exchange rate fluctuations or even economic uncertainties, UNTWO said. “But this state of affairs may not continue indefinitely,” it cautioned.

Economic vitality and increased competition have triggered demand for air transport despite the high costs of fuel, it said. The price of oil is now poised to tip the US$100 a barrel mark.

In a key comment, UNWTO said: “Overall the price rise seems to have been absorbed so far. Increased operating efficiencies, including staff cost economies, have compensated significantly for the rising share of fuel in airlines’ total costs.

“However, it should be noted that the representatives of the transport sector in the UNWTO 'panel of experts' are among the least positive both in evaluation and prospects. The growth of low-cost air transport around the world – which has made air travel accessible to an increasing share of the world’s population in advanced economies, but also in emerging market and developing countries – has also boosted demand for short-haul flights.”

Tourism demand softening in 2008

International tourism demand will soften in 2008 but will still be above the long-term trend, UNWTO said, in a typically conservative set of forecasts. The increase in international tourist arrivals is projected to be around half a percentage point lower than in 2007, thus around 5.0%, but still above UNWTO’s long-term annual forecast growth of 4.1% through 2020.

UNWTO predicts, perhaps surprisingly, that the Middle East will slow in growth, though the message is still upbeat. Upcoming developments in destinations such as Abu Dhabi or the lndmark completion of The Palm Jumeirah in Dubai will continue to mark tourism in the region. Middle East intra-regional traffic is also expected to continue benefiting from increased disposable income as a result of rising oil prices.

 Printable Version  | published Nov 18, 2007