30/07/10, 05:43:27 EDT

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Airline Quality Rating Researcher

newswire.ascribe.org

Holiday Air Travel Forecast Calls for Crowded Skies, Lost Luggage, Increased Security, Higher Fares

The U.S. airline system is showing signs of being overtaxed, and that is cause for concern when traveling this holiday season, according to Dean Headley, co-author of the national Airline Quality Rating and associate professor of marketing at Wichita State University.

The airline industry is showing signs of economic recovery, but troubles still exist for the traveler.

"Travel prices are usually higher during the holidays, and travel hassles are greater. If recent months are any indication, the holiday traveler needs to prepare for a potentially frustrating experience," said Headley. "Overall capacity adjustments by airlines have resulted in fewer seats available in smaller markets and more in larger markets. People can find some decent travel options if you are willing to have a little flexibility on schedule, routing and airline loyalty."

Traffic volumes are generally strong in the last two months of the year, with airports experiencing their busiest travel volumes between Thanksgiving and New Year's Day. November and December volume is usually about 15 percent of the total annual volume of domestic air travel. About 100 million people flew somewhere in the United States during November and December 2006. That number for 2005 was 99 million.

With a strong overall economy and intense fare competition among carriers, indications from the first six months of 2007 are that passenger traffic will be strong for 2007 holiday travel. Even with higher prices and the prospect of increased hassles, Headley predicts this year will be a very busy holiday travel season. The holiday traveler should expect full airplanes (near 80 percent capacity). Airlines are trying to squeeze as much revenue out of each flight as possible, and full planes are a must, according to Headley.

Travelers will also find that flight schedules have been adjusted regarding time, frequency and number of seats available. The schedules are designed to better match supply of seats to demand and allow for those seats to be priced higher. It is the classic effort to use supply and demand to achieve a price that yields higher revenue from flight operations.

Worried about a canceled flight ruining the holiday? Headley said that is always a possibility when traveling in winter weather, but "airlines are going to push hard to make the flight happen. All airlines need the revenue that full airplanes bring. They are not going to cancel a flight unless it is absolutely necessary and with the clamor for passenger rights regarding delays, airlines will be trying even harder to perform as promised."

Some history and travel tips:

Last year's on-time arrival percentages for November (77 percent) and December (71 percent) should be good indicators of what to expect this year. These on-time statistics mean a traveler will have more than a one-in-five chance of being delayed this holiday season.

Historically, denied boardings (being bumped from a flight involuntarily) increase late in the year and after the first of the year. With more people traveling and having a need to be somewhere for the holiday, schedule flexibility often disappears. Full flights make it difficult to get on another flight should you miss a flight, be bumped or have a flight canceled. With capacity reductions and every plane nearly full, the airline system just doesn't have much room for accommodating a schedule change, no matter what the reason for the change.

Typically, mishandled baggage rates are at their highest in December (2006 was 8.9 bags mishandled per 1,000 passengers) and January (2007 was 8.2 bags mishandled per 1,000 passengers). Almost all of 2007 has seen a noticeable increase in mishandled baggage across the industry (for all of 2006 it was 6.5 mishandled bags per 1,000 passengers for the industry).

Security concerns and the volume of passengers are forcing more bags to be checked, increasing volumes past processing capabilities. Most airlines have a carry-on policy of one bag and a purse or briefcase. Checked bags are at some risk of being mishandled, but checking bags generally reduces stress and helps minimize the time it takes to get through security checks. Checked baggage is usually the best option unless, of course, it doesn't arrive when and where you arrive. A little back-up packing in your allowed carry-on may be advisable. Don't forget about the weight limit for each piece of checked luggage. Consider express shipping extra luggage or sports equipment to avoid problems.

The annual Airline Quality Rating report combines the performance elements of on-time arrivals, involuntary denied boarding, mishandled baggage and customer complaint rates into a single performance rating score. When looking at the industry AQR scores for past years, the months of December and January are consistently the worst months for airline industry performance on these combined elements. Looking at the AQR scores for December 2006, the worst performers were American Eagle and Comair. The best performers in December 2006 were AirTran and Hawaiian.

Security is always a concern during any holiday season, but, with higher passenger volumes, security will be even more of a sticking point in the airline travel process. Headley suggests: "Arriving early at the airport is a good practice, especially during the holidays. More people, tighter security and uncertain weather add time to the process of air travel."

Send your holiday packages (and luggage too) ahead of time rather than carry them on the airplane or check them at the airport. If you do take packages with you, remember to leave them unwrapped for security inspection. Security doesn't have a problem with packed wrapping paper, but they do with wrapped packages. Finally, pack patience. Stepped-up security, weather delays and busier airports filled with holiday travelers will add time and hassles to your trip. Don't let a short fuse or things beyond your control ruin the spirit of the holidays.

 Printable Version  | published Nov 07, 2007